Advantage probabilities


There are two types of advantage


Hit rolls

The following table shows the expected value when rolling a hit roll at disadvantage, normally, and at advantage

Dice RolledDisadvantageNormal RollAdvantage
3d6 1.0 1.5 2.0
4d6 1.6 2.0 2.5
5d6 1.9 2.5 3.1
6d6 2.3 3.0 3.7
7d6 2.8 3.5 4.2
8d6 3.2 4.0 4.8
9d6 3.7 4.5 5.3
10d6 4.1 5.0 5.9
11d6 4.6 5.5 6.4
12d6 5.0 6.0 7.0


Ability checks

The following table shows the expected value when rolling an ability check at disadvantage, normally, and at advantage

Dice RolledDisadvantageNormalAdvantage
3d6 8.8 10.5 12.2
4d6 12.1 14.0 15.9
5d6 15.3 17.5 19.7
6d6 18.6 21.0 23.4


Skill rolls

The expected value of adding 3d6 to a skill roll is roughly 0.5